{"id":6631,"date":"2012-08-21T22:50:54","date_gmt":"2012-08-22T02:50:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/1001harf.com\/?p=6631"},"modified":"2012-08-21T22:50:54","modified_gmt":"2012-08-22T02:50:54","slug":"tehrans-nuclear-program","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/1001harf.com\/tehrans-nuclear-program\/","title":{"rendered":"Tehran\u2019s nuclear program"},"content":{"rendered":"

As Israel and Iran entered this summer of confrontation over Tehran\u2019s nuclear program, the Iranians were also conducting talks with the United States and other leading nations to seek a diplomatic alternative to war. Since then, the rumors of an impending Israeli military strike have grown almost daily, but whatever happened to the negotiations?<\/p>\n

The answer is that the\u00a0\u201cP5+1\u201d talks\u00a0with Iran have been in recess during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, but contact is expected to resume soon between the top negotiators. Talking with Iranian and U.S. experts, I don\u2019t hear any hint of a breakthrough that would ease the war fever, although some useful new ideas have been floated.<\/p>\n<\/article>\n
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Iran\u2019s quest to possess nuclear technology:\u2009Iran said it has made advances in nuclear technology, citing new uranium enrichment centrifuges and domestically made reactor fuel.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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The diplomatic track has been frustrating to U.S. officials, so far. But it remains important because the military alternative is so fraught with dangers \u2014 not least for Israel and its long-term goal of preventing the Iranians from having nuclear weapons. An Israeli military strike might set the Iranian program back several years. But it would probably shatter the international coalition against Iran, galvanize support for the mullahs at home and in the region \u2014 and thus might make Iran\u2019s eventual acquisition of a bomb even more likely.Because of such risks, many leaders of Israel\u2019s national-security establishment, past and present, appear to oppose\u00a0Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu\u2019s consideration of a military strike. Despite this internal Israeli split, Republican candidate Mitt Romney has strongly endorsed Netanyahu and chided President Obama for taking an independent U.S. position,\u00a0saying at a campaign rallyMonday: \u201cThe president throwing Bibi Netanyahu under the bus was totally unacceptable. Him negotiating for Israel, our friend, totally unacceptable, in my view.\u201d<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s the situation in the negotiations Romney evidently dislikes: By the end of August,\u00a0Catherine Ashton, the European diplomat who is the chief negotiator for the P5+1, will likely talk by phone about next steps with\u00a0Saeed Jalili, the representative of Iran\u2019s supreme leader. The possibilities include another technical meeting of experts or deputy negotiators, or a full, top-level negotiating session.<\/p>\n

The P5+1 nations (the United States, Britain, France, China, Russia and Germany) are still discussing their bargaining position. The consultations quickened last week with a trip to Beijing, Moscow and London by\u00a0Wendy Sherman, the under secretary of state who is the top U.S. negotiator. The six countries agreed to continue working together despite some disagreements about tactics: \u201cAt the end of the day, we will proceed in unity,\u201d said a senior administration official.<\/p>\n

There remains a \u201csignificant gap between the P5+1 and Iran,\u201d according to the U.S. official. The Iranians officially have offered only to suspend enrichment of uranium to the 20 percent level, in exchange for lifting sanctions. This position is a non-starter for the United States and its negotiating partners.<\/p>\n

Unofficially,\u00a0Iranians have signaled\u00a0that they would be ready to export their stockpile of 20 percent uranium and cap future enrichment at 5 percent. This comes closer to meeting U.S. concerns, but it still leaves Iran with a big stockpile of about 6,000 kilograms of low-enriched uranium that could fuel a\u00a0breakout\u00a0\u2014 to \u201cdash\u201d toward a bomb. It\u2019s this ability that most worries Israel.<\/p>\n

An interesting bridging proposal comes from\u00a0Seyed Hossein Mousavian, a former Iranian negotiator who is now a visiting fellow at Princeton. He told me this week that in addition to capping enrichment at 5 percent, Iran might agree to a \u201czero stockpile\u201d of this low-enriched fuel. A joint committee with the P5+1 would assess Iran\u2019s domestic needs, and any enriched uranium would either be converted immediately to the needed fuel rods or panels, or it would be exported.<\/p>\n

In exchange, Mousavian argues, the P5+1 would recognize Iran\u2019s right to enrich uranium and would gradually lift sanctions.<\/p>\n

This intriguing proposal lacks official Iranian support, but it would address Israel\u2019s biggest concern and would surely interest U.S. officials. Mousavian also notes Iran\u2019s willingness to allow much wider inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) into what are known as \u201cpossible military dimensions\u201d of the Iranian nuclear program. This transparency proposal would allow the IAEA to monitor any possible breakout, but U.S. officials caution that, if the Iranians decided to go for a bomb, they could simply expel the IAEA inspectors and make the dash.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a final thought, based on the all-too-real possibility that negotiations will remain deadlocked and Israel will decide to take\u00a0unilateral military action. In the resulting\u00a0fog of war, there will be a need for reliable communications in the Persian Gulf and a hotline with Tehran. Establishing these communications links is an urgent priority, as the rumors of war continue.<\/p>\n

davidignatius@washpost.com<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As Israel and Iran entered this summer of confrontation over Tehran\u2019s nuclear program, the Iranians were also conducting talks with the United States and other leading nations to seek a … Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2411],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/1001harf.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6631"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/1001harf.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/1001harf.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1001harf.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1001harf.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6631"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/1001harf.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6631\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/1001harf.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6631"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1001harf.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6631"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1001harf.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6631"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}